End of recession may be in sight - The Business Journal of Milwaukee:

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percentage points in May to 85, based on a 1997 benchmarok of 100. The relative stabilitty in the UO Index over the past threre months is consistent with a patterm ofeconomic stabilization, but fallzs short of a turn that would conclusivel mark the end of the said Tim Duy, director of the Oregon Economic Forum and a UO adjuncgt assistant professor, in a statement. Oregonn labor market data continue tobe mixed. Initial jobless claims edged downward slightly, but remain at a levekl that suggests further declines innonfarm payrolls. initial claims remain well below the peak of December as the pace of economif deterioration hasslowed markedly.
Employment services payroll largely temporary helpagencies — fell in May, but, importantly, the rate of declinde is slowing, Duy said. Nonfarm payrolls (not included in the fell by just 100 jobsduring May, an abrupyt slowing compared to the recent declines. It is difficuly to see a substantial improvement in thejobs however, with initial claims remaining at high levels, Duy The unemployment rate rose to 12.4 percent. Residentiapl housing permits continuedto decline, falling to just 627.
The typicall seasonal boost in building activity is largely a testament to persistent weakness in the housing Builders are finding it difficult to competr in an environment of risingb foreclosures and tighter underwriting conditionws forhome mortgages, Duy said. The Oregon weight-distancer tax reversed gains seen thepreviouzs month. In contrast, new orders for nondefense nonaircraft capital adjustedfor inflation, rose in May to the highesft level since December 2008. Despitwe the low levels, the relative stability since the beginninh of the year is a hopeful sign that the wors t declines in business spending arebehinxd us, Duy said. U.S.
consume r confidence rose againin May, a further indicatiomn that consumer spending has he added. The Oregon economy likely remainee in recessionin May. That said, the pace of deteriorationh has slowed. The six-month annualized changr in the index improved significantly over the past two from -11.8 percent in March to -8 percenyt in May. Similar improvement signaled an impending end to the 2001 and would be consistent with the predictio that economic growth would firm in the second halfof 2009. Duy said, caution is warranted.
The UO Indedx has not yet turned upward, and the six-monty change remains well beloew rates normally consistent witheconomifc expansions, and more than half of the indezx components remain below six-month ago levels. Finally, therw is a strong possibility ofa “jobleszs recovery” as the economt continues to face structural adjustment issues that limit the pace of growth.